Companies had fundamentally reordered their priority markets: Mexico had replaced Russia, which was now in ninth place, sandwiched between Vietnam and Colombia. Chile, Indonesia and Vietnam were the new rising stars. It was incredibly surprising to us how quickly people had abandoned Russia,” said Alex Turkeltaub, Frontier Strategy Group’s chairman.
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For the years 2011 to 2050, Goldman is projecting annual rates of growth of 4.3% for Brazil, 5.2% for China, 6.3% for India and only 2.8% for Russia. Meanwhile, figures released this week showed how Russia has been hit much harder by recession than the other three: industrial output is 15.4% down on last year and gross domestic product declined nearly 10% in the first quarter. Brazil’s economy, in contrast, is already showing signs of pulling out of recession and could return to growth in the second half of this year, according to officials.

[Frontier Strategy] says Russia’s failure to diversify its economy away from oil and gas meant it didn’t grow between commodity cycles. Unlike Brazil and China, there was little evidence that a broad middle class was emerging in Russia with bulging wallets and the confidence to spend. And with its declining population, Russia’s demographics were less attractive than, say, those of Mexico.

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